Myanmar's Uncertain Future

Having recently seen the end of what have been decades on decades of extractive military rule, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar is at a critical juncture. In a recent by-election the opposition party (National League for Democracy) to the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party saw a massive victory, that just 20 years ago would have been overrode and covered up by the military. Though the president Thein Sein has deep rooted ties to the Union Solidarity and Development Party, Burma does seem to be taking steps towards more inclusive economic institutions.

Acemoglu and Robinson argue the persistence of extractive political and economic institutions. Burma has a deep history of militarily enforced extractive political institutions, and is now at a critical juncture where these institutions are being challenged. With that said, one ought to be cautious to be too optimistic for Burma's future. Like many other countries that have seen challenge to their extractive ruling classes, there is a pattern of persistence, and the newly powerful often fall back on the institutions of the ruling class that came before them. This is not to discount the steps Burma has made towards progress, but rather to suggest that Burma has come to a fork in the road and we have yet to see the path the country will head down.